Its a knock on his offensive line. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. In 2020, James Conner ranked 36th and Benny Snell ranked 54th in expected yards-per-carry out of 55 qualifiers, a sign of a weak offensive line and scheme. . Andy Hicks: It is hard for an undrafted rookie running back to succeed in the NFL. If Gordon's injury is extended, Williams could be appropriately priced, but until there is more information, he is an avoid at cost. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. . Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. My, my, how the game has changed. His fantasy value was bolstered late in the year due to an insane usage rate in the passing game, seeing a whopping 8.6 targets per game when Alex Smith started. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB30. But, man, there are all sorts of asterisks to add to that description. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. Preseason may help a little. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. However, James Robinson is a better runner than Etienne at this point. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. By the season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. Instead, McKissic is a receiving-centric option where targets will be at a premium considering the competition in Washington, which was not present in the 2020 version with notable wide receiver additions Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown. Gibson fumbled in the preseason opener, and ball security has been an issue as he coughed up the football four times last year. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Davis was great in relief of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last year, but he got tired quickly. 24 Overrated RBs. Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. If you look at Bettis total career marks, you will see that he is 5th on the all time rushing yards list and 10th in TDs. Andrew Davenport: Montgomery was the 26th-ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest through nine games last year. That makes me want to be high on Josh Jacobs, but unfortunately, all reports point to a backfield by committee. He yields passing work to J.D. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. Taylor can be a rock-solid option and still be pecked away with Hines and Mack enough to be more in the RB10-15 range. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. The team added Brian Robinson Jr Jr. on day two of the draft while retaining J.D. While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. McKissic will get passing down work, so Gibson's floor and ceiling will be lower than last year, the only question is how much lower. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. J.D. 5. Ben Cummins: I dont want much to do with the Texans at all this season. That is not the stat line of an elite RB at all. Brown has always been a strong contributor inside the five-yard line scoring 9 rushing touchdowns in the last two years in that hot zone. In addition, teammate Gus Edwards just signed a two-year, $10M contract extension in June, so he isnt going anywhere any time soon. If he is still on the opening day roster, Gordon's workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. Dave Kluge: Sure, youre not giving up any crazy draft capital to get J.D. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. "The Philadelphia Story," on the other hand, was a comedy, a genre not often seen as Best Picture worthy. Phil Alexander: The epic stretch-run that led Montgomery to an RB4 finish in 2020 came with Tarik Cohen sidelined and against the defenses of Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, respectively. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. Ronaldinho is also one of the finest players of all time and the global icon dazzled with his Brazilian flair for across Europe, most notably for Barcelona and AC Milan. Single Brady is known for being the only quarterback in history to win 7 Super Bowls, and is often considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Adding another trip around the sun and competition from two young, capable running backs is the recipe for the bottom to fall out for Gordon. We've seen J.D. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. Drew Davenport: Through nine games last year, Montgomery was the 26th ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest. He was used more as a receiver than anything. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. Lambertville, Michigan 48144. most overrated running backs of all time(734) 854-2000 During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his current ADP of RB13 and 20th overall. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris will likely struggle behind his offensive line and may not garner an elite share of red zone touches. Weve seen flashes of Raheem Mostert over the last couple of years feasting in this offense, but its sporadic and challenging to predict. Top 10 Most Overrated Athletes of All Time It's not that they aren't great players, they just aren't everything we've been led to believe. But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? That, plus the uncertainty of Edmond's role, leaves me more concerned than excited. Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Swift has already broken the injury seal with a groin issue in camp, and Jamaal Williams has already been spoken of highly as a potential 1A to Swift's No. The following represent the most overrated NFL player on each team. Sigmund Bloom: The Raiders are going to adopt a frustrating Patriots-style committee at running back under Josh McDaniels, which means that Jacobs will be at best Damien Harris in this offense. But now in the NFL, he is removed from passing down work in favor of J.D. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. James Brimacombe: I view Melvin Gordon III this season a lot like I viewed Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville last offseason. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB19. Tatum Bell isn't the only Lions running back of the 2000s to get snakebitten. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should. Nobody should ever try to run like Barry Sanders, because they will never be Barry Sanders. Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. But so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is, and all three running backs are likely to play plenty. He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. So what's the concern? If Robinson claims goal line work, there is an upward battle for returning a value in his ADP. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. USA Today named the most overrated player on every NFL team in 2022 and for the Cleveland Browns, Jadeveon Clowney was given this unwanted distinction. Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs' ADP would be justified and reasonable if the Raiders hadn't added Kenyan Drake, but they did. Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. There's zero appeal here. Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. 54 touchdowns. most overrated running backs of all time. Victoria Geary: Sanders had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Gordon caught only 32 passes last year, and outside of three games where he scored two touchdowns, he was a mediocre fantasy back. I'm out. McKissic. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. Martin is one of the best running backs of all time because he blended good ability with outstanding durability and versatility. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. He also spent his first 5 years on the saints, where he got 20 carries exactly 2 times there. Jim Brown 2. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. At 5-foot-6 and 191 pounds, Cohen is too small and one-dimensional to be used as a lead back even if David Montgomery gets hurt. Adrian Peterson 10. At cost, D'Andre Swift and others are better combinations of floor and ceiling. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. Drafting running backs on the downside of their career, on bad offenses, in a platoon situation, is fraught with peril. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . Yep. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. Jason Wood: Ekeler can single-handedly carry a fantasy team for a week or two. Jason Garrett was one of the most uninspiring play-callers in the league last year. The Eagles consistently added to the depth chart this offseason with Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell added to Boston Scott. LaDainian Tomlinson 6. Etienne's selection early in the late first signals he should have an immediate opportunity, especially with a new coaching staff in place. He's a workout warrior - I get that, but whether or not he recovers immediately from this injury is yet to be seen, and because there is a doubt, he's someone I am avoiding at nearly all costs. His average DVOA of 0.085% would rank him 31st in the NFL in 2009, right behind Rashard Mendenhall. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. Tony Dorsett 12. This is exactly what the Steelers tried to do by selecting Najee Harris in the first round in the NFL Draft. Gaskin has missed long periods through injury in his first two seasons in the league. Ricky Watters 20. Lynn's mauling offensive line and run-first mentality give Swift a chance to make good on his ADP, but he is being drafted at his ceiling. Fred Taylor They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. Here are the NFL running backs with the most career touchdown runs over 50 yards (based on stats through 2016). Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. He has lapses in vision and decision-making. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. His lack of use as a runner has to be a concern. Ben Cummins: Im a big fan of Antonio Gibsons talent, but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. Washingtons offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesnt project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. Malcolm Brown should play plenty, and this offense isn't likely to be explosive enough to support two running backs in any meaningful way. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Has no highlight reel. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals. Quarterback Lamar Jackson will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Notre Dame's Kyren Williams was one of them and Georgia's James Cook was the other player named. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB13. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. Cam Akers, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB13. Mike Davis, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB23. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. 9 Tim Brown Via nfl.com I was one of many who publicly voiced outrage over the fact that Tim Brown had to wait until 2015 get his Hall of Fame honor. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. Gibson plays on a bad offense, has rushing competition from Robinson, and receiving competition from McKissic. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. While 3,000 hits is nothing to scoff at, his place as an. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. Brown should have a role, most likely on early downs and at the goal-line, which would sink Gaskins chances of living up to his ADP. Yes, but it doesn't feel like he'll be a top-10 type of running back, even in the Chiefs' potent offense. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. "Matthew Berry, ESPN. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. Never a good idea. McKissic, one the league's better pass-catching backs. McKissic is not your traditional committee back or injury-away dart throw for a big ceiling. He's a strong talent with some flaws with a better all-around back ahead of him. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. And Hill is only touchable due to the cheat code rushing factor for quarterbacks. The Top Ten. Jan 26 . Can he still be fantasy-relevant? Kudos to James Robinson. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. I understand the upside, but I don't want to take a huge miss if I'm drafting in Week 1. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB9 | Consensus Projections RB9. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. So as we can see, Bettis had about the 9th best run blocking offensive line in the NFL during his career. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. John Riggins 19. Jacobs could easily wind up as a player who does a lot of work between the 20s with no meaningful fantasy production. Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. Sigmund Bloom: Barkley may not be 100% to start the season, and he might not truly be 100% until next season. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. Gordon isn't going away just because fantasy managers want him to. Backs who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage are going after Chubb. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Football Running Backs in 2019. Raheem Mostert, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB31 | Consensus Projections RB35. Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. This is a major factor to any expectation that Robinson is fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the very early weeks in the season. The Raiders are sure to recoup as much production as they can on the $8.5 million guarantee they gave Drake on a two-year deal, so this will look closer to a committee than a true lead-back situation. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021.